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Matchday Pundit

Saturday, 16 May 2026  •  FA Cup Final  •  Wembley Stadium

FA Cup Final Preview

Chelsea vs Manchester City

Kick off 3:00pm BST

Wembley Stadium

The 145th FA Cup Final

This is the 145th FA Cup Final and, on paper at least, it should be a proper occasion. In reality there is an unmistakable sense of anticlimax hanging over it. Not because the teams are wrong, but because of the state both clubs find themselves in. One is a machine still humming, the other is a wreck held together with gaffer tape and hope. And yet that is precisely what makes Saturday so compelling. Cup finals have a way of rewriting the script nobody expected.

The Big Picture

Two Clubs, Two Very Different Realities

Let me be straight with you. This final is being contested between two clubs who could not be further apart right now in terms of stability, confidence and direction. Manchester City come into this having already lifted the EFL Cup this season and still very much in contention for the Premier League title. Chelsea arrive at Wembley having had one of the most chaotic, directionless seasons a well resourced club has put together in recent memory.

Chelsea travel across the capital facing the daunting task of salvaging something positive from a bitterly disappointing campaign, where heavy investment has yielded little reward and has left supporters disillusioned with the club’s youth centric blueprint. The FA Cup Final is their only chance of winning silverware this season, and also their most direct path back into European competition. Win this and Chelsea are in the Europa League. Lose it and the summer gets even uglier than it already promises to be.

Having already won the EFL Cup, Manchester City could win both major English domestic cup competitions this season. It would be the sixth time a team has done so, after Arsenal in 1992 to 93, Liverpool in both 2000 to 01 and 2021 to 22, Chelsea in 2006 to 07, and City themselves in 2018 to 19.

The future of Pep Guardiola is still uncertain. If a golden era comes to an end at the Etihad, winning the FA Cup would be a fitting send off.

13City unbeaten run vs Chelsea

17thChelsea FA Cup Final appearance

4thConsecutive final for City (a record)

145thEdition of the FA Cup

The Dugout

The Manager Situation Is Extraordinary

I keep coming back to this because it is genuinely one of the most unusual setups you will see in a major cup final. On one touchline you have Pep Guardiola, arguably the greatest manager of his generation, preparing for his fifth FA Cup final appearance. On the other you have Calum McFarlane, Chelsea’s Under 21 boss, thrust into the most high profile game of his career by accident rather than design.

While Chelsea continue their search for Liam Rosenior’s successor, with Xabi Alonso and Andoni Iraola believed to be among the leading candidates, McFarlane takes interim charge and is aiming to become the first Chelsea coach to lift the FA Cup since Antonio Conte in 2018.

To achieve that, McFarlane must become the first Chelsea manager to beat Pep Guardiola since Thomas Tuchel in the 2020 to 21 Champions League final. Since then, Tuchel, Graham Potter, Frank Lampard, Mauricio Pochettino, Enzo Maresca, Liam Rosenior and even McFarlane himself have all failed to beat Guardiola in 13 matches across various competitions.

On the other side of the equation, Guardiola has won 28 of 38 finals across all competitions for Man City, Bayern Munich and Barcelona. He can also become the first ever manager to win the domestic double twice, having previously led City to Carabao Cup and FA Cup glory back in 2018 to 19. The experience gap here is not a small one. It is a canyon. But McFarlane has already shown he is not here to simply make up the numbers, and that counts for something.

Recent Form

A Tale of Two Seasons

Manchester City are in a groove. They have won eight of their last nine fixtures, and seven of their last eight games have featured at least three goals. Guardiola made six changes against Crystal Palace in midweek, cruising to a 3 to 0 win, which means his key players including Haaland, Doku and Cherki are fresh and rested heading into Saturday. That is smart man management. He is treating this final with the respect it deserves.

Chelsea are in crisis form. The Blues have failed to score in each of their last four Wembley finals and have netted just three goals in their last ten games across all competitions. They have lost six of their last ten games without scoring and have conceded the first goal in 12 of their last 14 games. Those are numbers that tell a bleak story. A team that cannot score and consistently goes behind early is not a team in a position to beat Manchester City at Wembley. Unless something shifts on the day.

Team News

The Fitness Picture

Chelsea go into this with a worrying injury list. McFarlane has confirmed that Robert Sanchez, Pedro Neto and Alejandro Garnacho have all returned to training this week and could be involved. Reece James has also trained well and could be recalled to start either at right back or in a deep lying midfield role alongside Moises Caicedo. If Garnacho and Neto are fit and sharp, Chelsea suddenly have pace and width to threaten City in behind. If they are not right, the game plan becomes much more restricted.

Chelsea confirmed out

• Mykhaylo Mudryk (suspension)
• Estêvão (hamstring, season over)
• Jamie Gittens (hamstring)
• Jesse Derry (head)

For City, the only real concern is key midfielder Rodri, who has missed the last five matches with a groin issue and remains a doubt. Nico Gonzalez was left out of the squad against Palace in midweek but is fine to play. Haaland, Doku and Cherki were all rested midweek and are fully expected to start.

Tactical Analysis

How This Game Will Be Played

This is where the final gets genuinely interesting, because we have seen multiple versions of this matchup already this season and there are clear patterns to dig into.

City’s attacking formula under Guardiola is well established. Cherki supports from the inside channel around Haaland, with Semenyo and Doku holding the width and attacking Chelsea’s full backs one on one. The idea is to stretch the defensive shape horizontally, drag players out of position, and then find Haaland when the spaces open centrally. It is relentless and it is effective.

Chelsea’s best moments against City this season have come on the counter. Any time João Pedro dropped to link play, he pulled City’s central defender out of position, and when he set the ball back, Chelsea’s wide players had space to run into, usually creating good one on one moments.

The tactical solution McFarlane is likely to reach for again involves shape flexibility. He changed Chelsea’s shape at half time in their last meeting with City, converting into a back three. The visitors then committed significant numbers to a higher press, with Palmer and João Pedro jumping as a central pair in the first line. The question is whether Chelsea can sustain that for 90 minutes rather than just a half.

Doku against Gusto feels like one of the key individual battles. If Chelsea cannot contain him, the afternoon will be a long one.

Chelsea’s strategy must centre on controlling the midfield to cut off supply to Haaland. The full backs are crucial in monitoring wide attackers such as Savinho and Doku. João Pedro should drop from striker to a deeper position, effectively operating as a false nine, drawing City’s central defenders out of position and splitting their focus. Chelsea will almost certainly need to sit deeper and absorb pressure for long spells, trusting Palmer and João Pedro to make something happen on the break.

Players to Watch

The Men Who Will Decide It

Cole Palmer

Chelsea

Chelsea’s everything right now. Palmer has shown he is a player for the biggest occasion, having been directly involved in five goals across his two major cup finals for Chelsea, getting two assists in the Conference League triumph over Real Betis and then scoring twice with another assist in the Club World Cup win over PSG. The big stage does not frighten him. But he does not look like the player of two years ago and that drop in form through the second half of the season is a genuine concern. If he shows up, Chelsea have a chance. If he does not, they have nothing.

Erling Haaland

Manchester City

Haaland carries one of the stranger Wembley narratives in recent memory. He is looking to score in a final for Manchester City for the first time, having played in nine finals including Community Shield appearances and taken 15 shots without success at this stage. Yet the same man has eight goal involvements in eight games against Chelsea, consisting of five goals and three assists, and scored a hat trick against Liverpool in the FA Cup quarter final in his last competitive start. Something has to give. Saturday feels like the day Haaland finally delivers in a City final.

Jérémy Doku

Manchester City

The most dangerous wide player on the pitch in terms of direct threat. In the last two seasons of the FA Cup, no player has been involved in more goals than Doku with three goals and five assists, and his 40 dribbles are the most of any Premier League player in that time. Whoever Chelsea assign to deal with him will have their work cut out.

Enzo Fernández

Chelsea

Chelsea’s best hope of controlling this game in midfield. Fernández has been involved in six goals in nine FA Cup appearances for Chelsea, four goals and two assists, including the winning header from a Pedro Neto cross against Leeds in the semi final this season. If he can impose himself on this match the way he did at Wembley against Leeds, Chelsea are in business.

Nico O’Reilly

Manchester City

Quietly one of the subplot stories of the final. Having bagged a brace in the Carabao Cup final win over Arsenal, O’Reilly now has the chance to become only the fourth player to score in both the League Cup and FA Cup final in the same season, after Norman Whiteside, Mark Hughes and Didier Drogba.

History & Context

The Records on the Line

There is history being made here regardless of the result. Manchester City are the first team to play in four consecutive FA Cup Finals, having beaten Manchester United in 2023 before losing to the Red Devils in 2024 and Crystal Palace in 2025. Only Chelsea, from 2020 to 2022, have ever lost the FA Cup Final in three consecutive campaigns. City are desperately trying to avoid that comparison becoming their own.

This is Chelsea’s 17th FA Cup Final and their first since 2022, when they lost for a record third consecutive time. They have won eight and lost eight of their final appearances so far, losing each of their last three in a row. Another defeat and they match the unwanted record they set just four years ago. This is also the first time Chelsea and Manchester City have ever met in an FA Cup Final, which adds a layer of freshness to a rivalry that has been utterly one sided in recent years.

Manchester City 2

Chelsea 1

The numbers, the form, the managerial quality, the head to head record and the injury situation all point in one direction and that direction is Manchester City. Chelsea need a perfect performance from an imperfect squad. They need Palmer to channel his 2024 self. They need their defensive structure to hold for large portions of the game. They need the ball to break kindly for them on the counter. That is a lot of things that all have to go right simultaneously. City control the game, Haaland finally delivers at Wembley, and Doku causes havoc throughout. Chelsea nick a goal and make it uncomfortable late on, but Guardiola’s side see it out. And if this turns out to be Pep’s farewell to English football, he leaves with the double. That would be some curtain call.

Matchday Pundit  •  FA Cup Final  •  16 May 2026