Matchday Pundit | May 29, 2026
While we sit here one day from a Champions League final, the rest of the football world is already looking past Budapest. In less than two weeks, the greatest sporting event on the planet kicks off across the United States, Canada and Mexico. The 2026 FIFA World Cup. Forty eight teams. One hundred and four matches. Thirty nine days of football spread across sixteen cities in three countries. And for the first time in four years, every conversation in every corner of the globe will be about one thing.
This is the most anticipated World Cup in a generation, and not just because of the expanded format or the extraordinary host nations. It is anticipated because the storylines surrounding it are almost too rich to contain in a single piece of writing. The two greatest players in football history are both expected to make their final World Cup appearances, with Ronaldo having formally confirmed it and Messi giving every signal that points the same way. One of them is carrying a hamstring concern going into the tournament. The most successful international team of the last decade arrives as defending champions but with questions over how much their talisman has left in the tank. Italy, four times champions of the world, are absent for the third consecutive tournament. Robert Lewandowski, one of the greatest strikers of his generation, will not be there. Neither will Kvaratskhelia, the best winger in European football this season. Nigeria and Cameroon, two of Africa’s giants, also failed to qualify.
And somewhere in all of that chaos and brilliance, someone is going to lift the trophy at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on July 19.
Let us get into everything.
The Tournament Itself: Bigger, Louder, and More Spread Out Than Ever
First, the logistics, because this World Cup is genuinely unlike anything that has come before it.
For the first time, three nations are jointly hosting the men’s World Cup. Sixteen host cities across the United States, Canada and Mexico. Eleven venues in the USA, three in Mexico and two in Canada. The opening match takes place on June 11 at the iconic Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, which becomes the first stadium ever to host games at three different men’s World Cups. Mexico face South Africa in that opener, which is a wonderful moment for the host nation.
The tournament runs all the way through to July 19, when the final takes place at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. For the first time in World Cup history, the final will have a Super Bowl style half time show, with Madonna, Shakira and BTS confirmed as headliners, curated by Coldplay’s Chris Martin. That tells you everything about the scale of this occasion.
The format has also changed significantly. With forty eight teams, the tournament now features twelve groups of four, with the top two from each group plus the eight best third place teams advancing to a new round of 32, before the competition becomes a straight knockout from there. The total of 104 matches is up from 64 at Qatar 2022. There is simply more football, spread across a broader geographical area, in a continent that is falling deeply in love with the sport in real time.
This is the World Cup where football truly comes to America. Not as a visitor. As a resident.
The Big Names Who Will Not Be There
Before we talk about who can win this tournament, let us pay proper respect to the names who will not be involved, because some of these absences are genuinely painful for the sport.
Italy are missing from the World Cup for the third consecutive tournament. Three in a row. For context, Italy have won this competition four times. They have Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal, one of the best keepers in the world. They have Sandro Tonali playing some of the best football of his career. And yet they failed to navigate the European playoff system, going out on penalties against Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is an ongoing crisis for Italian football that has now spanned a decade, and there are no easy answers as to why it keeps happening.
Nigeria failed to qualify. Victor Osimhen, one of the most devastating centre forwards in European football, will not be in North America this summer. Ademola Lookman, voted African Footballer of the Year in 2024, also misses out. For a country of Nigeria’s footballing tradition and depth of talent, missing back to back World Cups for the first time in their history is a genuine crisis.
Robert Lewandowski will not be there. Poland were eliminated by Sweden 3-2 in the European playoff final, with Viktor Gyokeres of all people scoring a late winner to break Lewandowski’s heart. The Barcelona striker, 37 years old, left the pitch in tears after the final whistle and posted a photo on social media alongside a goodbye song. He has strongly hinted at international retirement. If that is the end, then one of the most prolific strikers in the history of European football finishes his international career without a World Cup to show for it. He scored 89 goals for Poland in 165 appearances. The game owed him better than this.
Dominik Szoboszlai of Hungary will not be there. Georgia, drawn in the same qualifying group as Spain and Turkey, means Khvicha Kvaratskhelia misses the tournament entirely despite producing arguably the best Champions League knockout campaign of any individual player this season. That is the brutal reality of international football qualification.
England’s Phil Foden and Cole Palmer are both absent, left out by Thomas Tuchel after disappointing club seasons. Both fell well short of the standards they set in previous campaigns, and Tuchel made ruthless calls. The squad was described as probably the most shocking since 1998. It is the correct decision even if it stings.
And then there is the deepest absence of all. Diogo Jota will never play football again. The Liverpool and Portugal forward died in a car accident in Spain in July 2025 at the age of 28, alongside his brother Andre. Portugal’s World Cup squad announcement earlier this month was one of the most emotional sports moments of the year. Coach Roberto Martinez named 27 players and then described his squad as “27 plus one.” The plus one is Jota. “He is our strength, our joy,” Martinez said. “Losing Diogo was an unforgettable and very difficult moment, but the very next day it was up to all of us to fight for Diogo’s dream and for the example he always set in our national team. The spirit, the strength, the example of Diogo Jota. He will be the plus one forever.” Football does not get much more human than that.
The Final Chapter for Two Legends
The 2026 World Cup is, among many other things, the last stage on which the two greatest players in the history of this sport will compete. Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo at a World Cup together, for the final time, in the same tournament. If you love football, you understand exactly what that means.
Cristiano Ronaldo, 41 years old, has been named in Portugal’s squad by Roberto Martinez and has confirmed this will definitely be his last World Cup. He told CNN: “I will be 41 years old and I think it will be the moment, in a big competition.” He has scored in five World Cups, holds the record for most international appearances by a man with 226 caps, and has scored 143 goals for his country. At Al Nassr in Saudi Arabia, he is still scoring freely. The one major trophy that has eluded him throughout a career of almost incomprehensible achievement is the World Cup. This is his last chance.
Messi’s situation is more complicated. The eight time Ballon d’Or winner, who turns 39 during the tournament on June 24, picked up a hamstring concern in Inter Miami’s most recent MLS match just days ago. Argentina coach Scaloni has said publicly that Messi will not join the squad fully fit, and that multiple players are in a race against time with injuries. But the expectation remains that Messi will be there. He was included in Argentina’s preliminary 55-man squad. His teammate and close friend Rodrigo De Paul revealed that both of them have been doing double training sessions specifically to prepare for this tournament. Prediction markets have his participation at around 90 per cent.
If both men make it to the tournament healthy and in form, we will witness something that will not happen again in our lifetimes. The greatest rivalry in football history, sharing a World Cup stage for the sixth and final time. Whatever happens with the trophy, that alone is worth the price of admission.
The Title Race: Who Can Win This?
Now to the main question. Who lifts the trophy in New Jersey on July 19?
Spain are the favourites, and they arrive as deserving front runners. Reigning European champions, with a squad built for modern tournament football. Lamine Yamal, just 18 years old, is one of the most extraordinary young talents the sport has produced in decades. He suffered a hamstring scare at Barcelona but is expected to be fit and ready for Spain’s opening game against Cape Verde in Group H. Around him, Spain have Pedri, Rodri, Gavi, Nico Williams and Dani Olmo as genuine quality throughout the squad. There is no Real Madrid player in De la Fuente’s squad for the first time in World Cup history, a remarkable fact that speaks to how the power has shifted in Spanish football toward Barcelona. Spain are tactically clear, collectively strong, and individually brilliant. They are the team to beat.
France arrive as the FIFA world number one ranked nation, and Didier Deschamps has named a strong 26-man squad with Kylian Mbappe leading the attack. This will be Deschamps’ last tournament as France manager, a fact he has already confirmed. He reached two consecutive World Cup finals, winning in 2018 and losing to Argentina on penalties in 2022. He wants to finish with the trophy. Antoine Griezmann is not in this squad, having retired from international football after Euro 2024, but France do not lack for attacking talent. Ousmane Dembele, who has just had the season of his life at PSG, is the current Ballon d’Or holder and joins Mbappe in a forward line that is frightening on its best day. France are in Group I with Senegal, Iraq and Norway, a manageable draw that should allow them to build into the tournament. This is Mbappe’s World Cup to define his legacy.
England arrive with genuine optimism under Thomas Tuchel. Harry Kane, who captains his country at a third World Cup. Jude Bellingham at Real Madrid. Declan Rice and Eberechi Eze from Arsenal’s title winning side. Marcus Rashford, who has rediscovered his very best form at Barcelona this season. Bukayo Saka, fresh from the Champions League final tomorrow. England are drawn in Group L with Croatia, Ghana and Panama, a very manageable route to the knockouts. The question, as always with England, is whether they have the mental fortitude to win the matches that matter in the knockout rounds. Tuchel has built a team with collective identity rather than collecting individual stars, and that approach could be the difference that England have always lacked in major tournaments.
Argentina arrive as defending champions. Even with Messi carrying a fitness concern, this squad has Julian Alvarez at Atletico Madrid, Lautaro Martinez at Inter Milan, Alejandro Garnacho at Chelsea, and an experienced core that has been through the pressure of winning a World Cup together. They are in Group J with Algeria, Austria and Jordan, a draw that looks very manageable. Scaloni knows this group intimately. The tournament experience alone makes Argentina dangerous. And if Messi gets himself fit, the equation changes significantly.
Brazil arrive with questions to answer after a turbulent qualifying campaign but with talent that remains frightening. Vinicius Junior, when fully fit and focused, is one of the most dangerous forwards on the planet. Raphinha had a remarkable season at Barcelona. Brazil are in Group C with Morocco, Haiti and Scotland. They have not won a World Cup since 2002, and the pressure on this squad is enormous. Carlo Ancelotti is in charge and has a settled enough structure. The question is whether this generation has the collective strength to go all the way.
Portugal have a fascinating and emotional story to tell. Nations League champions. Bruno Fernandes in the form of his life after his record breaking Premier League season. Pedro Neto, Rafael Leao, Goncalo Ramos and Joao Neves as genuine quality around Ronaldo. They face DR Congo, Uzbekistan and Colombia in Group K. And they carry Jota’s memory with them every step of the way. If this group of players can channel the emotion of that plus one into something tangible on the pitch, Portugal winning their first ever World Cup would be one of the greatest sporting stories ever told.
Germany are a wildcard nobody should sleep on. Florian Wirtz has emerged as a genuine world class talent. Jamal Musiala is back to his best at Bayern. Julian Nagelsmann has built a team with a clear identity and real energy. They are in Group E with Curacao, Ivory Coast and Ecuador, arguably the most straightforward group draw any major nation received. Germany going deep in this tournament would not surprise anyone who has watched this squad over the past year.
The Big Talking Points Heading In
The expanded forty eight team format is the experiment everyone is watching. Can a World Cup with 104 matches maintain quality and excitement throughout? The hope is that the new round of 32 creates compelling knockout football earlier in the tournament. The fear is that the group stage, with 72 games, becomes saturated. We will find out.
The host nations carry enormous expectation. Mexico open the tournament at the Azteca on June 11. The United States, with Mauricio Pochettino now in charge, face Paraguay, Australia and Turkey in Group D. Can they go deep in front of a home crowd that will be enormous? The whole country will be watching.
There is also the small matter of Deschamps signing off as France manager. His entire reign ends with this tournament. Winning a second World Cup as a manager, having already won it as a player in 1998 and as manager in 2018, would be a remarkable farewell. Losing would be a painful end to an extraordinary tenure. The stakes for France go beyond the trophy alone.
And at the heart of everything, this tournament will generate its own stories, its own heroes, its own heartbreaks. Someone nobody has heard of will score the goal of the tournament. A team nobody expected will reach the semi finals. A penalty will be missed in the most important moment. A goalkeeper will become a national hero overnight.
That is what the World Cup does. It creates legends in five weeks. It always has.
My Call
If I had to pick one team to lift the trophy in New Jersey on July 19, I would say Spain. The combination of Yamal’s genius, the collective strength of the squad, and the tactical clarity De la Fuente has installed makes them the most complete team in the tournament. They are young enough to be fearless and experienced enough to be dangerous.
But France will push them every step of the way. And if Messi is fit and Argentina can navigate the bracket, the defending champions will be impossible to write off. The last few World Cups have taught us that the team we expect to win often does not. In 2018, nobody predicted Croatia reaching the final. In 2022, Morocco went to the semi finals and a 36 year old Messi finally lifted the trophy after a lifetime of trying.
This summer, in North America, expect the unexpected. That is the only rule that ever truly applies.
The World Cup starts on June 11. I cannot wait.
Matchday Pundit | May 29, 2026
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