Matchday Pundit

WORLD CUP 2026  •  QUARTER-FINALS  •  DEEP ANALYSIS

Wednesday July 9, 2026 • Quarter-Finals Begin Today

France and Morocco kick off the quarter-finals today in Boston, a rematch of the 2022 World Cup semi-final that changed African football forever. Spain face Belgium in Los Angeles on Friday. Norway and England collide in Miami on Saturday, the most fascinating match of the quarter-final round. And Argentina face Switzerland in Kansas City on Saturday night. I have watched every single minute of this tournament and I want to tell you exactly what I think is coming next.

By The Matchday PunditWednesday July 9, 2026  •  World Cup Day 29

France	vs	Morocco	JUL 9 • FOXBOROUGH
Spain	vs	Belgium	JUL 10 • LOS ANGELES
Norway	vs	England	JUL 11 • MIAMI
Argentina	vs	Switzerland	JUL 11 • KANSAS CITY

Forty teams have gone home. Eight remain. And what a road it has been to get here. We have watched Argentina be taken to the wire twice in the knockout stage, first by Cape Verde in the round of 32 and then by Egypt in the round of 16, coming back from 2-0 down with eleven minutes left to win 3-2 on both occasions. We have watched England walk into the Estadio Azteca, play over thirty minutes with ten men, and leave with a 3-2 win that no English supporter who was watching will ever forget. We have watched Erling Haaland score twice in the last six minutes to eliminate five-time champions Brazil. We have watched Belgium come from 2-0 down against Senegal with four minutes left to equalise in the 89th minute and then win on a penalty in extra time. We have watched Switzerland eliminate Colombia on penalties. This round of sixteen was one of the great collections of knockout football matches this competition has ever produced. And now it is the quarter-finals. Let me go through every one of them properly.

Quarter-Final One: France vs Morocco

France vs Morocco

July 9 • Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts • 4pm ET

TODAY

The last time these two sides met at a World Cup was December 14, 2022, in the semi-finals in Qatar. France won 2-0 through goals from Theo Hernandez and Randal Kolo Muani. Morocco had become the first African nation to reach the World Cup semi-finals, a historic achievement that transformed the way the continent thinks about its own footballing potential. When that game ended and Morocco went home, there was grief but also the quiet understanding that something had fundamentally changed. Now, four years later, they are back in the quarter-finals again, which makes them the first African nation ever to reach back-to-back World Cup quarter-finals. They have not just repeated that achievement. They have done it at a considerably higher level of consistency than most people expected.

Morocco’s path to this point has been genuinely impressive. They qualified from Group C with seven points, drawing 1-1 with Brazil and beating Scotland 1-0 and Haiti 4-2. They knocked out the Netherlands on penalties in the round of 32 after drawing 1-1, Cody Gakpo’s 71st minute goal cancelled out by Issa Diop’s stoppage time equaliser before Morocco won 3-2 in the shootout. And in the round of 16, they demolished Canada 3-0 with a performance so controlled and so clinical that it left several analysts reconsidering where they rank among the genuine contenders for this trophy. Azzedine Ounahi was the standout performer in the Canada win, his pressing, his range of passing, and his ability to arrive late in the box making him impossible to contain. Ismael Saibari has scored three goals at this tournament. Achraf Hakimi from right back continues to be one of the best overlapping defenders in world football. And they have only conceded three goals across their entire six-match tournament run.

And yet. France are the +170 tournament favourites for a reason. They have not conceded a single goal in their two knockout matches. They beat Sweden 3-0 in the round of 32 and Paraguay 1-0 in the round of 16. Kylian Mbappe has seven tournament goals. Ousmane Dembele has four, including the hat trick against Norway that was the most stunning individual attacking performance of the entire group stage. Michael Olise has five assists, a figure that only Pele in 1970 has bettered in a single World Cup edition in the history of this competition. And this France team have not just been scoring goals. They have been managing games with a tactical maturity that Didier Deschamps has developed over years of major tournament management. France know how to win when they have a lead. They know how to close games out. That is the hardest skill in tournament football and it is the skill that most often separates contenders from champions.

“Morocco are the first African nation in history to reach back-to-back World Cup quarter-finals. France have not conceded in two knockout matches. Something has to give tonight in Foxborough.”

My view on this match. I think France win it, but I do not think it is comfortable. Morocco’s defensive organisation, the compact block that Walid Regragui has drilled into this team over three years, will make life genuinely difficult for Mbappe and Dembele in the first half. Morocco’s threat on the counter, through Saibari’s pace and Hakimi’s overlapping runs from right back, is real and consistent. But France have the individual quality to find moments even against well-organised defences, and the fitness advantage of having played an easier knockout match against Paraguay matters as Morocco have had to work harder to reach this point. I am going France in what I expect to be a 2-0 win, possibly a single goal margin if Morocco’s goalkeeper Yassine Bounou has another extraordinary night.

Quarter-Final Two: Spain vs Belgium

Spain vs Belgium

July 10 • SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California • 3pm ET

FRIDAY

This is a match that pits Spain’s extraordinary defensive record against Belgium’s unpredictable, occasionally chaotic, occasionally brilliant attacking football. Spain have conceded only twice in seven matches at this tournament, and that defensive solidity, built on the partnership of Pau Cubarsi and Aymeric Laporte at the back with Rodri screening in front of them, is the foundation on which everything else is built. Belgium, on the other hand, have taken more varied routes to this point. They came from 2-0 down against Senegal with four minutes left in the round of 32, Romelu Lukaku pulling one back and Youri Tielemans heading an equaliser three minutes later before converting a penalty five minutes from the end of extra time. They then beat the United States 4-1 in the round of 16, with Charles De Ketelaere scoring twice and Lukaku again impactful from the bench. It was the kind of performance that reminded everyone watching that this Belgium squad, while not the golden generation of 2018, still has extraordinary individual quality spread across its depth.

Kevin De Bruyne is the key. At 35 years old, the Napoli midfielder is at his very last World Cup, and the way he has controlled matches from the base of Belgium’s midfield has been the most understated outstanding individual performance of this entire tournament. Against the USA, he produced a first half so complete in its passing range, its pressing intensity, and its tactical intelligence that the American midfield simply could not live with him. Spain’s Rodri will present a much stiffer challenge. These two, Rodri and De Bruyne, are arguably the two best deep-lying midfielders in the world at this moment, and watching them go head to head in Los Angeles on Friday is one of the genuinely compelling individual duels left in this tournament.

The problem for Belgium is that this Spain team has not been behind in any match at this World Cup. Not once, across seven games. Their defensive shape is so well drilled and so collectively committed that it does not give opponents the gaps in behind that Belgium’s quick forwards need to exploit. Lamine Yamal at 19 years old has been the second best player at this tournament. Mikel Oyarzabal has four goals. And Mikel Merino, a substitute, scored the only goal against Portugal with six minutes of his appearance completed. The depth of quality coming off Spain’s bench is genuinely extraordinary. I think Spain win this but Belgium will make it uncomfortable in the way that they have made every match at this tournament uncomfortable. I am going Spain 2-0 to 2-1.

Quarter-Final Three: Norway vs England

Norway vs England

July 11 • Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida • 5pm ET

SATURDAY

This is the quarter-final I am most excited about. It is also the one I find hardest to call. Norway have eliminated Brazil. England have won at the Azteca with ten men. Both performances, taken individually, are among the standout results of this entire tournament. And now these two teams face each other in Miami, and between them they have two of the best strikers on the planet, both in the form of their lives, both capable of winning a match on their own in a single moment.

Erling Haaland has seven goals in five World Cup matches. He is 25 years old and this is his first ever World Cup, and it has confirmed everything that anyone who watched him at Manchester City already knew about him. He scores goals the way other people breathe. The two late goals against Brazil, a header from Schjelderup’s cross in the 84th minute and a low drive through Danilo Santos’s legs in the 90th, were the most important goals scored at this tournament by any player other than Messi. Norway’s entire tactical system, the deep defensive shape, the compact midfield, the quick transitions through Ounahi and Bobb and Nusa on the flanks, is built to feed Haaland in the best possible positions. If England’s centre-backs do not solve him in this match, they will lose it. It is as simple as that.

But England have Harry Kane on six tournament goals. They have Jude Bellingham, who at 23 years and 6 days old became the youngest player in history to make ten World Cup appearances when he ran out against Mexico. Bellingham scored twice in 98 seconds at the Azteca to silence an 80,000-strong crowd before England were reduced to ten men. He then made a goal-saving clearance to deny Cesar Montes a late equaliser as England hung on. What Bellingham did in Mexico City is one of the great individual performances in England World Cup history and he is only going to grow in confidence from it. The concern heading into Miami, however, is Quansah’s suspension following the red card against Mexico. England’s defensive shape will need reorganising to account for Haaland without their first-choice right back, and Thomas Tuchel will also be assessing Jordan Henderson, who was taken to hospital with a wrist injury suffered in the post-match celebrations at the Azteca, as an additional squad concern.

“Haaland vs Kane. Bellingham vs Odegaard. Norway’s first ever quarter-final vs England’s third consecutive one. This match in Miami is the one I cannot take my eyes off.”

Norway also have Orjan Nyland in goal. The 35-year-old former Sevilla backup who is now a free agent after his contract expired this summer was the difference in the Brazil match with his penalty save and multiple critical stops. He is carrying a momentum of belief that is becoming its own force. This match genuinely could go either way and I think it will be decided by a single moment of individual brilliance from either Haaland or Kane or Bellingham. My gut says England edge it, 2-1, in another match that goes to the wire. But I would not bet money against Norway. Not after what they did to Brazil.

Quarter-Final Four: Argentina vs Switzerland

Argentina vs Switzerland

July 11 • Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City • 9pm ET

SATURDAY

Argentina have been living dangerously at this World Cup and I do not think that is going to stop now. They came from 2-0 down against Egypt with eleven minutes left, Cristian Romero heading in Messi’s cross in the 79th minute, Messi equalising in the 83rd minute with a first-time strike that ricocheted in off the bar, and Enzo Fernandez completing the comeback with a bullet header from Lautaro Martinez’s cross in the second minute of stoppage time. Messi had also missed a first-half penalty, his second penalty miss at this tournament, making it arguably the most dramatic single Argentina match since the 2022 final. Egypt were furious, particularly over a VAR decision that disallowed what appeared to be a legitimate second goal by Mostafa Zico for a foul on Lisandro Martinez outside the box before the move began. Egypt’s coach Hossam Hassan said after the match that “in football there are sometimes external factors that go beyond the technical aspects.” Whatever you make of the VAR controversy, Argentina survived. They always survive.

Messi now has eight goals at this tournament, making him the outright leading scorer with 21 career World Cup goals, the most in the history of the men’s and women’s competitions combined, ahead of Brazil’s Marta. He has scored in nine consecutive World Cup matches. He is 39 years old. None of this is rationally explicable. Switzerland, who beat Colombia on penalties in the round of 16 after a goalless draw, face the most complicated task of any side remaining in this tournament. Gregor Kobel in goal, the Borussia Dortmund goalkeeper who saved a crucial penalty in the Colombia shootout to send Switzerland through, gives them a reliable and confident presence between the posts. Granit Xhaka, the Sunderland captain who at 33 years old still organises the midfield with the authority of a man who has played in every major tournament for the last decade, and Ruben Vargas scored the decisive penalty against Colombia with the composure of a player who has been in big moments before.

But Switzerland have never beaten Argentina in a competitive match. Their head-to-head record in World Cup knockout football favours Argentina, who beat them in the round of 16 at the 2014 World Cup in extra time through an Angel Di Maria goal in the 118th minute. And this Argentina side, however dangerously they have been living, has the character of a team that simply refuses to be eliminated. Scaloni said after the Egypt match: “I cannot look up, I am sorry. I am really emotional right now. What a group of players.” The reigning world champions, twice now having pulled themselves back from the brink, will be a different proposition for Switzerland than they were against Egypt. Messi will be rested and ready. Argentina win this 2-0 or 2-1.

My Semi-Final Predictions

If my quarter-final predictions are correct, we get France against Spain in one semi-final and England against Argentina in the other. France vs Spain would be the most technically accomplished semi-final this tournament has produced, two sides that build from the back, control possession, and win games through organisation and quality rather than chaos. I think France would edge that 1-0 or 2-1. England vs Argentina would be the match the entire football world wants to watch. Kane against the Argentina defence. Bellingham against De Paul and Enzo Fernandez. Messi in the semi-final of a World Cup at 39 years old. Argentina’s recent near misses suggesting they have more work to do to reach their best level. England’s momentum after the Azteca win suggesting a team that is growing in belief with each passing match. I think Argentina win that one. Not comfortably. But they win it.

Which gives you a final of France against Argentina at MetLife Stadium on July 19. A rematch of 2022. The greatest World Cup final I have ever watched, 3-3 after extra time before Argentina won on penalties. The football world would stop completely for that. I would not be surprised if the ratings for a France-Argentina final at MetLife Stadium broke every television record ever set for a sporting event in North America. If we get it, I think France win this time. Mbappe gets his World Cup. Dembele gets his Golden Ball. And the greatest footballer who ever lived, who gave us eight goals in seven matches at age 39 in his final World Cup, finishes as the runner-up one last time. Football is occasionally cruel. But it is also, always, magnificent.

France vs Morocco	FRANCE
Spain vs Belgium	SPAIN
Norway vs England	ENGLAND
Argentina vs Switzerland	ARGENTINA
Semi-Finals
France vs Spain	FRANCE
England vs Argentina	ARGENTINA
Final • MetLife Stadium • July 19
France vs Argentina	FRANCE

Whatever happens from here, this has been the best World Cup I have ever watched. The stories have been extraordinary. The football has been extraordinary. And we still have four quarter-finals, two semi-finals and a final to go. Fifteen matches. Keep watching. This is not close to being over.

World Cup 2026

Matchday Pundit