Wednesday August 20, 2026 • Season Preview • Two Days Until Kick Off

Arsenal ended a 22 year wait for the title and then went out and spent big anyway. Manchester City have a new manager for the first time in a decade. Liverpool have a new manager too. So do Chelsea, Manchester United, Fulham, Ipswich and Newcastle. Nine of the twenty clubs in this division will start the season with someone different in the dugout compared to two years ago. This is the most unfamiliar Premier League landscape I can remember. Here is my honest read on all of it.

By The Matchday Pundit

Arsenal go into this season as champions of England for the first time in 22 years, and the thing that strikes me most about their summer is that they have behaved like a club with absolutely no intention of enjoying the moment. Winning the title after two decades of near misses would tempt most boards into a summer of continuity and celebration. Instead Arsenal have spent £75 million on Bruno Guimaraes, £51 million on Ezri Konsa, £34.5 million on Piero Hincapie and £34 million on Christos Tzolis. That is not the behaviour of a club that thinks it has arrived. That is the behaviour of a club that thinks it has finally started. I find that genuinely exciting, and it is the single biggest reason I think they can do it again.

But this is going to be much harder than last season. Manchester City finished seven points behind Arsenal and have replaced Pep Guardiola with Enzo Maresca, a coach whose entire footballing philosophy was shaped inside that building. Liverpool have moved on from Arne Slot and appointed Andoni Iraola. Chelsea have Xabi Alonso and have just broken the British transfer record for Morgan Rogers. Manchester United finished third and have made Michael Carrick permanent. There are four or five clubs in this division with a genuine claim to the trophy and I cannot remember the last time I could say that with a straight face in August. Let me work through all of it properly.

The Season at a Glance.

KEY DATES AND FACTS

Opening match: Arsenal vs Coventry City at the Emirates, Friday August 21, 8pm BST.

Also on opening weekend: Brentford vs Tottenham and Fulham vs Chelsea, two London derbies straight out of the gate.

Final day: Sunday May 30, 2027, all ten fixtures kicking off simultaneously.

Why so late: The season starts a week later than usual to allow recovery time after the World Cup. That gives 89 clear days from the end of last season and 33 days from the World Cup final.

Structure: 33 weekend rounds and five midweek rounds. Transfer window closes September 1.

Promoted: Coventry City as Championship winners, Ipswich Town in second, Hull City through the play offs.

Relegated last season: West Ham United, Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Nine New Faces in the Dugout. This Is Not the League You Remember.

WHO IS IN CHARGE

ARSENAL Mikel Arteta. In charge since December 2019 and now the longest serving manager in the division.

MAN CITY Enzo Maresca. Appointed June 29 on a three year deal. City paid Chelsea over £17 million in compensation.

LIVERPOOL Andoni Iraola. Replacing Arne Slot, who was dismissed after two seasons having won the title in his first.

CHELSEA Xabi Alonso. Four year contract from July 1, arriving after Leverkusen and a short spell at Real Madrid.

MAN UNITED Michael Carrick. Made permanent after taking over in January and guiding United into the Champions League.

TOTTENHAM Roberto De Zerbi. Recently appointed to rebuild after a 17th place finish and survival by two points.

ASTON VILLA Unai Emery. Continues after winning the Europa League and finishing fourth.

NEWCASTLE Matthias Jaissle. Replacing Eddie Howe, who resigned this summer.

FULHAM Alvaro Arbeloa. Taking over from Marco Silva after his interim spell at Real Madrid.

BRENTFORD Keith Andrews. Steadying the ship in his second season.

COVENTRY Frank Lampard. Won the Championship at a canter and returns to the top flight.

IPSWICH Gary O’Neil. Replacing Kieran McKenna, who resigned over the summer.

HULL Sergej Jakirovic. First season managing at this level.

I want to pause on that list because I think it is the defining story of this season. Pep Guardiola spent ten years at Manchester City and won six Premier League titles. He is gone. Arne Slot won the league in his first season at Liverpool and was dismissed in his second. Kieran McKenna, who took Ipswich from League One to the Premier League and became one of the most admired young coaches in England, walked away from the job this summer rather than attempt a second promotion season. Eddie Howe resigned at Newcastle after transforming the club. That is an extraordinary amount of institutional knowledge leaving the division in a single summer, and the clubs who kept their manager, Arsenal and Aston Villa in particular, have an advantage in August that I do not think is being priced in properly.

Arsenal. Champions, and Behaving Like They Want More.

ARSENAL 2026 SUMMER BUSINESS

• IN Bruno Guimaraes, Newcastle United, £75m, four year deal until 2030
• IN Ezri Konsa, Aston Villa, £51m, deal agreed
• IN Piero Hincapie, Bayer Leverkusen, £34.5m, purchase option activated
• IN Christos Tzolis, Club Brugge, £34m, Belgian Pro League record fee
• IN Illan Meslier, Leeds United, free transfer
• OUT Leandro Trossard, Besiktas, £15.36m
• OUT Jakub Kiwior, Porto, £14.7m
• OUT Christian Norgaard, Everton

Arsenal won the title with 85 points and the best defence in the division. David Raya won his third consecutive Golden Glove with 19 clean sheets in 37 appearances. They scored 121 goals in all competitions. And then they went and beat Manchester City 3 to 0 in the Community Shield on Sunday with Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Viktor Gyokeres, Eberechi Eze, Mikel Merino and Martin Zubimendi all starting on the bench. That is the clearest possible statement of where this squad is compared to two years ago.

The Guimaraes signing is the one that changes their ceiling. A midfield three of Rice, Guimaraes and Martin Odegaard is, in my honest opinion, the best in this division and possibly in Europe. Guimaraes gives Arteta a genuine ball carrier and press resistant passer in the base of midfield, which is exactly what Arsenal lacked in the biggest matches of the past three seasons. Tzolis produced two assists on his competitive debut in Cardiff and looks like an outstanding piece of business at £34 million. Konsa arrives as a defender who can play centre back or right back, which matters enormously given the situation Arsenal find themselves in.

Because there is a serious problem here and it needs stating plainly. William Saliba is out for an extended period. Jurrien Timber is sidelined with a long term groin problem. Arsenal’s two best defenders are unavailable and that is precisely why the Konsa deal accelerated in the final week of the window. Cristhian Mosquera partnered Gabriel in the Community Shield and did well, but a title defence across 38 games plus a Champions League campaign requires more than that. If Saliba’s absence stretches into the autumn, this becomes the story that defines Arsenal’s season. Arteta knows it. That is why he paid £51 million for a 28 year old.

“Arsenal won the league and then spent nearly £200 million anyway. That is not a club celebrating. That is a club that thinks it has finally started.”

Manchester City. The Post Guardiola Question Nobody Can Answer Yet.

MANCHESTER CITY 2026 SUMMER BUSINESS

• IN Elliot Anderson, Nottingham Forest, £116m, five year contract
• IN Geronimo Rulli, goalkeeping cover
• IN Mathys Detourbet, Jeremy Monga and Pierce Charles, young additions
• OUT Bernardo Silva, Real Madrid, free transfer
• OUT Pep Guardiola, after ten years and six Premier League titles

Manchester City are a genuinely fascinating puzzle this season and I do not think anybody, including people inside the club, knows what the answer is yet. Enzo Maresca is a good coach. He won the Championship with Leicester on 97 points. He won the Club World Cup with Chelsea. He was part of Guardiola’s staff during the treble season, so the football he wants to play is broadly compatible with the squad he has inherited. On paper it is a sensible succession plan.

In practice, the Community Shield was alarming. City conceded after 24 seconds, were 2 to 0 down by the half hour and never looked like a coherent team at any point. Rodri and Savinho were both missing through injury, which matters, but the shape of the side was loose and the intensity was nowhere near Arsenal’s. Elliot Anderson at £116 million is a fine player but he is not Kevin De Bruyne, and the creative deficit left by De Bruyne going to Napoli and Bernardo Silva going to Real Madrid is now a structural issue rather than a temporary one. City are relying very heavily on Erling Haaland to convert limited service.

The counterargument is straightforward and I take it seriously. City signed Antoine Semenyo for £64 million and Marc Guehi for £20 million in January, and both settled immediately. They won nine of eleven games in all competitions after Semenyo arrived. They won the FA Cup. They beat Arsenal twice in 2026, in the EFL Cup final and in the league in April. This is still a squad packed with elite players and if Maresca finds the right shape by October, they will be right there in May. I just think the transition costs them a few points more than people expect.

Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United. The Chasing Pack.

Liverpool

Liverpool finished fifth and sacked the manager who had won them the title the season before. That tells you everything about the expectations at Anfield. Andoni Iraola inherits a squad with a genuine problem at the top of the pitch. Mohamed Salah has gone. Alexander Isak, signed for £125 million last summer, scored only three league goals in an injury disrupted first season. Ibrahima Konate left for Real Madrid on a free transfer. Andy Robertson left for Tottenham on a free.

The incoming business has been quiet: Jeremy Jacquet from Rennes, Victor Munoz from Osasuna, and Ronald Araujo on loan from Barcelona. Liverpool have been chasing Bradley Barcola from Paris Saint Germain all summer and PSG have held firm at around £145 million. If that deal does not happen before September 1, I think Liverpool have a real problem, because the squad as it stands is short of a top level wide forward. Iraola is an excellent coach and Isak returning to his Newcastle form would change everything. But right now this looks like a top four fight rather than a title challenge.

Chelsea

Chelsea have been the most aggressive club in the market. Morgan Rogers arrived from Aston Villa for £117 million, a British record, on a contract to 2032. Maxence Lacroix came from Crystal Palace for £60.7 million. Geovany Quenda, Marco Palestra, Valentin Barco, Danny Welbeck, Jordan Henderson and Pep Chavarria have all joined. Marc Cucurella went to Real Madrid, Andrey Santos to Manchester United for £48 million and Trevoh Chalobah to Como.

Xabi Alonso is the reason I take Chelsea seriously this season. His Leverkusen side went an entire Bundesliga campaign unbeaten. He builds teams with clear structure and defined roles, which is exactly what Chelsea have lacked for four years. Rogers is a genuinely elite attacking midfielder and Joao Pedro has been excellent in pre season. The Sky Sports supercomputer has them fifth on 72 points. I think that undersells them. If Alonso gets his ideas across quickly, Chelsea are my dark horse for the title.

Manchester United

United finished third and qualified for the Champions League, and Bruno Fernandes was extraordinary, setting a new Premier League record with 21 assists while scoring nine goals and winning the Football Writers’ Association Player of the Year award. Michael Carrick has been made permanent and has recruited to a clear plan: Andrey Santos for £48 million, Youri Tielemans for £35 million, Karl Darlow as goalkeeping cover. Rasmus Hojlund went to Napoli for £38 million and Casemiro left on a free.

My concern for United is the same one the supercomputer flags. Balancing a Champions League campaign with a Premier League push is a very different job from the one Carrick did in the second half of last season with no European football. Third again would be a strong outcome. I would be surprised if they finished higher.

The Best of the Rest.

Aston Villa won the Europa League and finished fourth, which is a remarkable achievement for Unai Emery. But they have been hollowed out this summer. Morgan Rogers went to Chelsea for £117 million. Ezri Konsa went to Arsenal for £51 million. Youri Tielemans went to Manchester United for £35 million. Donyell Malen went to Roma. They have reinvested in Johan Manzambi from Freiburg for around £51 million, Joao Gomes from Wolves for £38 million, Antonio Silva from Benfica and Alejandro Garnacho on loan from Chelsea. That is decent business but losing your best attacking midfielder, your best defender and a senior international in one window is a lot to absorb. The supercomputer gives them a 3.6 percent chance of a top four finish and I would not argue with it.

Tottenham have spent north of £200 million and they needed to. Spurs finished 17th and survived by two points, a second consecutive season of that kind. Mateus Fernandes arrived from West Ham for £85 million, smashing a club record that had stood since the £65 million paid for Dominic Solanke in 2024. Sandro Tonali followed from Newcastle in a deal worth up to £100 million. Jan Paul van Hecke came from Brighton, and Andy Robertson, Marcos Senesi and Martin Dubravka all arrived on free transfers. The one significant loss is Cristian Romero, who joined Atletico Madrid for around £34 million on a five year deal after 156 appearances and a Europa League triumph in 2025. Roberto De Zerbi has been backed enormously and Spurs have no European football to distract them. They are my pick for the biggest improvement in the top half.

Newcastle worry me enormously. Bruno Guimaraes to Arsenal for £75 million. Anthony Gordon to Barcelona for £69 million. Sandro Tonali to Tottenham. Alexander Isak to Liverpool for £125 million last summer. Eddie Howe resigned. That is the spine of a Champions League team dismantled in eighteen months, and the incoming business, Bazoumana Toure, Aladji Bamba, Sean Steur, Ewen Jaouen and Lukas Hornicek, does not come close to replacing it. Matthias Jaissle may well be a fine appointment but he has been handed a very difficult job.

Sunderland finished seventh and qualified for the Europa League, which was the story of last season. Granit Xhaka captained them and Regis Le Bris was outstanding. Repeating it while managing European commitments with a squad of that size is a genuinely tough ask, and the supercomputer gives them a 22.4 percent relegation risk. I think they stay up comfortably but seventh will not happen twice.

The Relegation Battle.

Every model I have looked at says the same thing and it is bleak reading for the promoted clubs.

RELEGATION PROBABILITIES

Hull City: 81.6 percent per the Sky Sports supercomputer. Another model has them at 84 percent and projects just 19 points, which would put them among the ten worst teams in Premier League history.

Ipswich Town: 47.5 percent per Sky Sports, 54 percent elsewhere.

Coventry City: 43.1 percent per Sky Sports, 68 percent elsewhere.

Nottingham Forest: 43.1 percent, the highest of any established Premier League club.

Crystal Palace: 32.8 percent. Sunderland: 22.4 percent. Leeds United: 9 percent.

Hull City are the clear favourites to go down and I find it very hard to argue. They came up through the play offs after finishing sixth, 22 points behind Coventry. Sergej Jakirovic has never managed at this level. Jack Butland, Matt Targett and Paddy McNair are among the very few players in the squad with meaningful top flight experience. Hidemasa Morita arriving on a free from Sporting is a smart signing but one smart signing does not close that gap.

Ipswich are in a strange position. Kieran McKenna, the manager who defined the club’s rise, resigned over the summer. Gary O’Neil takes over a squad that finished second but only a single point clear of Millwall, which is a much less convincing promotion than their previous one. Daizen Maeda from Celtic is a good addition and Issa Diop brings experience. But losing McKenna is a significant loss of identity.

Coventry are the promoted side I would back to survive if any of them do. Frank Lampard won the Championship at a canter. They have smashed their transfer record, bringing in Taiwo Awoniyi from Nottingham Forest, Loum Tchaouna, Aurele Amenda, Frank Onyeka from Brentford and making Carl Rushworth’s loan from Brighton permanent, plus the return of Gustavo Hamer. That is real investment and real Premier League experience in Awoniyi. They open the season away at Arsenal on Friday which is about as unforgiving a start as exists, but I think they have enough to fight.

The established club I am most worried about is Nottingham Forest. Losing Elliot Anderson for £116 million is enormous money but he was the engine of that team, and Taiwo Awoniyi has gone to Coventry. A 43.1 percent relegation probability for a club that was competing for Europe not long ago should be a serious alarm for anyone connected with the City Ground.

The Golden Boot.

Erling Haaland is 4/6 favourite and I understand exactly why. He has 112 goals in 132 Premier League appearances. He has scored 36, 27, 22 and 27 in his four seasons in England. He has won the award three times in four years and a fourth would equal the all time record shared by Thierry Henry and Mohamed Salah. He scored seven goals at the World Cup. There is no rational argument against him being favourite.

But 4/6 in a nine month market with twenty realistic contenders is not a price I would take, and here is my reasoning. Manchester City are in transition. Their creative supply is diminished with De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva both gone. Haaland’s goal output has always been partly a function of the volume of chances that machine generated, and that machine is being rebuilt in real time by a new manager. If City’s chance creation drops even ten percent, Haaland’s number drops with it.

GOLDEN BOOT CONTENDERS

Erling Haaland, Manchester City, 4/6. 27 goals last season. Three Golden Boots in four years. A fourth equals the all time record.

Alexander Isak, Liverpool, 8/1. Scored just three league goals last season after his £125m move. Scored 23 in 2024/25 at Newcastle. Everything depends on fitness.

Igor Thiago, Brentford, 12/1. 22 goals last season including eight penalties, recovering from an ACL injury. Guaranteed starts and penalty duties.

Viktor Gyokeres, Arsenal, 16/1. 14 league goals from 26 starts and 2,231 minutes, 21 in all competitions. The most by a new Arsenal arrival since Alexis Sanchez in 2014/15.

Joao Pedro, Chelsea, 16/1. 15 goals last season and outstanding in pre season, with a full summer of rest behind him.

Ollie Watkins, Aston Villa, 20/1. 16 goals for the Europa League winners.

My pick is Viktor Gyokeres at 16/1. He scored 14 league goals from only 26 starts while sharing minutes with Kai Havertz, and he outscored his expected goals figure of 12.4. Arsenal scored 121 goals in all competitions and have added Guimaraes and Tzolis to the supply line. If Gyokeres gets 32 or 33 starts this season rather than 26, the raw arithmetic puts him in the mid twenties. Haaland is the likely winner. Gyokeres is the bet.

My Predictions.

HOW I THINK IT FINISHES

1 Arsenal – Champions

2 Chelsea – Alonso’s structure arrives quickly

3 Manchester City – Transition costs them the title

4 Liverpool – If Barcola arrives, higher

5 Manchester United – Champions League load bites

6 Tottenham – The most improved side in the league

18 Coventry City – Fight hard, fall short

19 Ipswich Town – Losing McKenna proves decisive

20 Hull City – The gulf is simply too wide

BOOT Erling Haaland – Value pick: Viktor Gyokeres at 16/1

So can Arsenal do it back to back? Yes, and I think they will. No Arsenal side has won consecutive league titles since the mid 1930s, which is a stat that tells you how rare sustained dominance is at this club and how significant it would be if Arteta pulls it off. But I keep coming back to the same three things. They have the best midfield in the division. They have the best goalkeeper in the division. And every one of their direct rivals is either breaking in a new manager or breaking in a new spine, while Arsenal are doing neither.

The Saliba and Timber injuries are the thing that could derail it, and I do not want to underplay that. If Arsenal are still without both in November, the Konsa signing will look like the most important piece of business of the entire window. But a squad that beat Manchester City 3 to 0 with six first choice players on the bench does not look like a squad about to fall apart.

It starts on Friday night at the Emirates. Arsenal against Coventry, 8pm, and 38 games later we will know. I cannot wait.

Matchday Pundit