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Picture the scene. It is Monday night, 26 October. A theatre in the heart of London is packed with the best footballers on the planet, dressed in their sharpest suits, pretending they are not nervous. Thierry Henry is on stage. An envelope is about to open. And somewhere in that room, one player is about to hear his name read out for the most famous individual prize in football.

The only problem? Nobody knows whose name it is.

That is what makes the 2026 Ballon d’Or so good. Some years, the winner is obvious months before the ceremony. This year, the race stays wide open, and every serious football fan has a different answer. Some say Harry Kane. Some say Lamine Yamal. Some whisper about Rodri or Kylian Mbappé. And here at Matchday Pundit, we are putting our name on a different pick: Lionel Messi.

Yes, we know. We know he is 39. We know he plays in the United States. We know Argentina lost the World Cup final. We will deal with all of that, honestly, in this piece. But first, let’s set the stage, because this is a big night for football, and it deserves more than a quick summary.

Grab a drink. This is a long one.

The Night at a Glance

Before we get deep into the debate, here are the basics you need:

• What: The 70th Ballon d’Or ceremony

• When: Monday, 26 October 2026

• Where: The London Palladium, England

• Hosts: Kate Scott and Thierry Henry

• Time: 8pm in London, which is 9pm in Lagos

• Where to watch: Free and live on DAZN, or through the official Ballon d’Or website

• Reigning men’s winner: Ousmane Dembélé (2025)

• Record holder: Lionel Messi, with eight awards

Those details come from The National’s full guide to the 2026 Ballon d’Or, which updated its listings just this week.

Why London? A Tribute to Stanley Matthews

Here is the first big story, and it has nothing to do with who wins. For the first time in 70 years, the Ballon d’Or leaves France.

The award began in 1956, created by the French magazine France Football. Its first winner was an Englishman, Sir Stanley Matthews, the winger who beat Real Madrid legend Alfredo Di Stéfano to the prize. Di Stéfano took it the following year, so the early history of this award reads like a who’s who of football’s golden age.

Now the organisers are bringing the trophy to Matthews’s home country to mark exactly 70 years since that first night. It is a lovely touch. It also adds a bit of spice to the whole evening, because one of the favourites happens to be an Englishman: Harry Kane. If he wins, the storyline writes itself. We will come back to that.

The ceremony also looks different from the old days. The Ballon d’Or is now a joint effort between UEFA, France Football and L’Équipe. It has grown into something closer to football’s version of the Oscars. Alongside the main men’s and women’s prizes, the night hands out awards for the best goalkeeper, the best young player, the top scorer, the best coaches, the best clubs and a humanitarian honour.

If you want a reminder of how emotional this trophy can feel, read our earlier piece on how Benzema’s Ballon d’Or turns four as the 2026 race sits nine days away. It looks back at one of the most deserved wins of the modern era, and it sets up the countdown perfectly. Those nine days have now almost run out.

How the Vote Actually Works

People argue about the Ballon d’Or constantly, and half of those arguments come from not knowing how the thing is decided. So let’s clear that up.

First, the time window. The award no longer follows the calendar year. It follows the football season. For 2026, the period runs from 3 August 2025 to 19 July 2026. That end date matters a lot, because 19 July was the day of the World Cup final. In other words, the summer’s biggest tournament falls inside this year’s voting window, and it counts.

Second, the voters. A jury of journalists decides the winner, with one journalist from each country. Those countries come from the top 100 in the latest FIFA men’s rankings, and the top 50 for the women’s award. So the jury is international, and a vote from a Nigerian journalist carries the same weight as one from a French journalist.

Third, the method. Each juror ranks ten players from a shortlist of 30, which the editorial teams at France Football and L’Équipe put together. First place earns the most points, and the points step down from there. The player with the highest total wins. If two players tie, the one with more first-place votes takes it. If they still tie, second-place votes decide, and so on down the line.

Fourth, the criteria. The organisers tell jurors to weigh three things:

1. Individual performances, including a decisive and impressive character

2. Team performances and achievements

3. Class and fair play

Hold on to that third point. Most fans forget it exists, yet it can quietly change a vote. We will return to it when we talk about Messi.

The Shortlist: A Club Powerhouse and a Few Surprises

The 30-man men’s shortlist tells its own story. Paris Saint-Germain dominate it, with ten nominees. That figure reflects their status as French and European champions, and it includes names like Ousmane Dembélé, Vitinha, Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, João Neves, Nuno Mendes, Willian Pacho, Fabián Ruiz, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Ferran Torres.

Bayern Munich bring four names: Harry Kane, Michael Olise, Luis Díaz and Dayot Upamecano. Real Madrid also send four, including Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, Jude Bellingham and Marc Cucurella. Barcelona have three: Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Pau Cubarsí. Arsenal have three too, in Declan Rice, William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães. Then you find Erling Haaland at Manchester City, Bruno Fernandes at Manchester United, Lautaro Martínez at Inter, Sadio Mané at Al Nassr, Julián Quiñones at Al Qadsiah, and Lionel Messi at Inter Miami.

One name is missing, and plenty of people noticed. Cristiano Ronaldo is not on the list.That single detail says something about how the football world is changing. For years, the Ballon d’Or conversation revolved around those two players. Now one is a nominee for a ninth trophy, and the other did not make the cut.

The Full List of Nominees

Here is the complete 2026 shortlist as published by The National this week. The men’s list has 30 names, grouped by club.

Club	Men’s nominees
Paris Saint-Germain (10)	Ousmane Dembélé, Achraf Hakimi, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes, João Neves, Willian Pacho, Fabián Ruiz, Vitinha, Ferran Torres.
Bayern Munich (4)	Luis Díaz, Harry Kane, Michael Olise, Dayot Upamecano.
Real Madrid (4)	Jude Bellingham, Marc Cucurella, Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior.
Barcelona (3)	Pau Cubarsí, Lamine Yamal, Rodri.
Arsenal (3)	Gabriel Magalhães, Declan Rice, William Saliba.
Other Clubs(6)	Erling Haaland (Manchester City), Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United), Lautaro Martínez (Inter Milan), Sadio Mané (Al Nassr), Julián Quiñones (Al Qadsiah), Lionel Messi (Inter Miami)

The women’s list also has 30 names:

Clubs	Women’s Nominees
Barcelona (6)	Esmee Brugts, Cata Coll, Caroline Graham Hansen, Patri Guijarro, Ewa Pajor, Claudia Pina
Manchester City (5)	Kerstin Casparij, Alex Greenwood, Yui Hasegawa, Vivianne Miedema, Khadija Shaw.
OL Lyonnes (4)	Selma Bacha, Melchie Dumornay, Caroline Weir, Wendie Renard.
Bayern Munich(3)	Klara Bühl, Pernille Harder, Momoko Tanikawa.
Arsenal (2)	Mariona Caldentey, Alessia Russo
Chelsea(2)	Melvine Malard, Manaka Matsukubo
Kansas City (2)	Temwa Chawinga, Lorena
London City Lionesses (2)	Mapi León, Alexia Putellas
Others Clubs (4)	Scarlett Camberos (Club América), Rose Lavelle (Gotham FC), Barbra Banda (Orlando Pride), Tessa Wullaert (Como)

The other awards have their own shortlists:

• Yashin Trophy (goalkeepers): Yassine Bounou, Thibaut Courtois, Joan García, Gregor Kobel, Emiliano Martínez, Édouard Mendy, David Raya, Matvey Safonov, Unai Simón, Vozinha

• Men’s coach: Mikel Arteta, Luis de la Fuente, Unai Emery, Vincent Kompany, Luis Enrique

• Women’s coach: Jonatan Giráldez, Andrée Jeglertz, Nils Nielsen, Pere Romeu, Elena Sadiku

• Men’s club of the year: Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Bodø/Glimt, Flamengo, PSG

• Women’s club of the year: Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Club América, Manchester City, OL Lyonnes

Source: The National’s 2026 Ballon d’Or guide.

Last Year’s Story: How We Got Here

To understand 2026, rewind to 2025. Dembélé won the men’s Ballon d’Or after a brilliant season with PSG. Lamine Yamal finished second, and Dembélé’s club teammate Vitinha came third. Yamal also took the best young player prize, and Aitana Bonmatí won the women’s award for the third year running.

That result mattered because it set up a simple narrative: Yamal was the next big thing, just not quite yet.

Then the 2026 World Cup arrived and shook everything up. Before the final, Lionel Messi was the bookmakers’ favourite to win a record ninth award, according to a report from Africa Soccer. After Argentina lost to Spain, the odds flipped. Yamal and Kane moved to the top as joint favourites at 3.00. Messi dropped to third alongside Rodri, and Dembélé, the reigning champion, slipped out to 25.

Those odds come from the weeks right after the final, so treat them as a snapshot of the mood rather than a final prediction. Still, the shift shows how much one match can swing a race that covers a whole season.

The rest of this piece goes through the contenders one by one, and then makes our case.

Harry Kane: The Numbers Man

Let’s start with the man many experts now tip to win.Harry Kane had a season that sounds almost made up.

According to The National’s prediction piece, the 33-year-old striker scored 61 goals in 51 games for Bayern Munich. He led them to a domestic double. Then he scored six more goals at the World Cup as England finished third.

Sit with those numbers for a second. Sixty-one goals in 51 games means he scored more than once per match across a whole season, as a centre-forward, at an age when most strikers start to slow down. Bayern’s coach Vincent Kompany built a team that kept feeding him, and Kane kept finishing.

Then there is the story. If Kane wins in London, he becomes the first English winner since Michael Owen in 2001. He does it in his own country, on the 70th anniversary of the first English winner. Honestly, no film writer would dare script that.

Why might he fall short? Two reasons. First, England finished third at the World Cup, not first. Voters like a trophy-winning story, and Kane’s World Cup run ended in a consolation result. Second, Bayern lost in the Champions League semi-finals, so the biggest club prize slipped away. Great numbers, but not the biggest silverware.

Still, if the jury leans on pure production, Kane is the safest answer on the list.

Lamine Yamal: The Teenager Chasing History

Now to the boy who may become the youngest winner the award has ever seen.

Lamine Yamal is 19. In 45 matches for Barcelona last season, he produced 24 goals and 18 assists, and Barcelona retained the La Liga title. For a winger of his age, that kind of output is almost absurd. Flashscore points out that a win would make him the youngest Ballon d’Or winner in history, and the football world has watched him build toward that moment for two seasons.

Spain also won the World Cup, which strengthens his case a lot. A Ballon d’Or winner usually comes from a team that won something big, and Yamal’s team won everything it could.

But here is the weak spot, and it is a real one. The National notes that a pre-tournament injury seemed to limit him in North America, and he finished the World Cup with only one goal and one assist. Spain did not need him to carry the team, because their defence and midfield did the heavy lifting. That fact helps Spain’s trophy case and hurts his individual argument at the same time.

For Yamal, patience may be the answer. He is 19. He has already finished second once, and the same article suggests he is a matter of time away from a first win. The only question is whether this is the year, or the next one.

Kylian Mbappé: Everything Except the Trophy

Mbappé’s season deserves respect, even if the outcome of the vote likely goes against him.

For Real Madrid, the 27-year-old scored 42 goals in 44 games and won the Spanish Golden Boot for the second straight season. At the World Cup, he scored 10 goals, won the Golden Boot, and became the tournament’s all-time top scorer with 22 career goals, overtaking Lionel Messi. FourFourTwo reports he also took the Bronze Ball as the third-best player at the tournament.

That is a monster year by any standard. Yet neither Real Madrid nor France won a major trophy. And as The National puts it, that lack of silverware most likely hurts his chances.

This is the harsh logic of the Ballon d’Or. A superb season is not always enough. Voters often want a trophy to attach to the story, and Mbappé’s story, as good as it was, ends without one.

Rodri and the Spanish Wave

Now we reach the group that may split the vote in a big way: Spain.Luis de la Fuente’s side did not just win the World Cup. They bullied it. According to The National, they won seven of their eight matches and drew the other, and Spain now sit on a record 42-game unbeaten run. They hold the European crown and the world crown at the same time. Their goalkeeper Unai Simón conceded only one goal in the whole tournament, the fewest ever by a World Cup champion, and he took the Golden Glove for it.

At the centre of it all stood Rodri. The midfielder claimed the Golden Ball as the tournament’s best player. FourFourTwo’s report on the award points out that the Golden Ball often works as a signal for the Ballon d’Or, because it went to Messi in 2022 and Luka Modrić in 2018, and both of them then won the big prize. That detail alone puts Rodri firmly in the conversation.

His weakness is the same as his strength. Rodri does the work that wins matches but rarely makes the highlight reel. He wins the ball, calms the game and sets the tempo. Voters who watched Spain closely will understand his value. Voters who judge by goals and assists will drift towards others.

Then you have the supporting cast. Pau Cubarsí played every single minute of every match at the World Cup and won the tournament’s best young player award. David Raya enjoyed a fine season at Arsenal, where he kept 19 clean sheets in 37 Premier League games as the Gunners ended a 22-year wait for the league title. Spanish players could collect a whole bunch of individual honours in London.

But that is exactly why Spain might hurt their own cause. When one team holds so much of the credit, the votes spread across several players: Yamal, Rodri, Cubarsí, Fabián Ruiz and more. Split a vote across enough names, and the winner may come from somewhere else entirely.

The Final That Changed Everything

We need to talk about 19 July, because that night reshaped this entire race.

Spain faced Argentina at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, a final between the reigning European champions and the reigning world champions. It was a heavyweight fight on paper. In reality, it turned into a patient, suffocating Spanish performance. Ferran Torres scored the only goal in extra time, and Spain won 1-0.

Argentina struggled badly. Reports from the match say they failed to take a single shot during the 90 minutes of normal time. That is a staggering stat for a team led by a player who had scored eight times in the tournament. Spain’s midfield and defence simply smothered everything.

After the final, the individual awards landed. Rodri took the Golden Ball. Messi took the Silver Ball. Mbappé collected the Bronze Ball and the Golden Boot. Spain swept almost everything else.

Many writers declared Messi’s Ballon d’Or hopes dead that same night. One outlet even said the result dealt a heavy blow to his chances. We understand why people wrote that. But a few weeks of calm reflection tell a more interesting story, and that brings us to our verdict.

Our Verdict: Why Lionel Messi Can Still Win It

Let’s make the case properly, because it is stronger than the headlines suggest.

1. He had the most complete individual tournament

Forget the final for a moment and look at the whole World Cup. Messi scored eight goals and added four assists across the tournament. Only Mbappé scored more goals, and Mbappé did it while playing on a team that exited without silverware. Messi carried Argentina all the way to the final, creating chances, scoring big goals and setting the pace of games.

He did this at 39 years old. When he walked out for the final, he became the oldest outfield player ever to play in a World Cup final, aged 39 years and 25 days. Think about what that means. Teenagers and players in their prime ran around him, and he still produced one of the best individual tournaments of the century.

Before the final, the Associated Press described him as the driving force behind Argentina’s run and widely expected to win the Ballon d’Or. That report is worth a read for context. It notes that Messi was on course for a treble of the Golden Boot, the Golden Ball and the Ballon d’Or before the final went the other way. Those expectations did not come from nowhere. They came from weeks of brilliance that every juror watched.

2. A lost final does not erase a great tournament

The Ballon d’Or has crowned players from beaten finalists before. Luka Modrić won in 2018 after Croatia lost the World Cup final. Voters looked at his performances and decided that the tournament showed who the best player was, even without the trophy.

Messi’s case follows the same path. The Golden Ball itself has often gone to players on non-winning teams, a point the AP report raises when it notes that players from non-champion sides won it seven times out of eleven. The Golden Ball went to Rodri this time, and that is a fair result. But the jury of journalists is a different group with different priorities, and many of them will remember the earlier rounds just as vividly as the last one.

3. His club season still counts

Critics love to say he plays in the United States, so his season cannot compete. That argument deserves a straight answer.

The National calls him “considered an outsider now that he plays his club football in the US“, and it is true that Inter Miami does not get the same global spotlight as Barcelona or PSG. But the Ballon d’Or’s own website has said that winning without playing for a European club is “entirely possible“, according to the Herald Corp’s AP report. Sports Mole’s preview described him as Inter Miami’s most influential player across the season. The Transfermarkt figures shown in Google back that up: 25 goals and 12 assists in 27 MLS games in 2026, plus a goal in two Concacaf Champions Cup matches. Those numbers cover the whole calendar year, so they include games after the voting window closed on 19 July. He did not just sit in the background. He drove his team.

4. The field is split

This is the part many people overlook. Look at who he is up against:

• Kane and Yamal split the headlines but each carries a clear weakness, with Kane missing the biggest trophies and Yamal quiet at the World Cup.

• Rodri, Yamal and Cubarsí will share Spain’s votes.

• Mbappé has the numbers but no team trophy.

• PSG’s ten nominees will divide their own club’s support.

In a normal year, one player takes a huge chunk of first-place votes and wins comfortably. In a split year, a player who sits near the top of many ballots, and first on a good number of them, can win the whole thing. Messi has the profile to do exactly that. He has the name, the tournament and the history, and jurors know it.

5. The story is simply too big

We will say what many people feel but fewer admit. This is almost certainly Messi’s last World Cup, and the Ballon d’Or voting has always had a human side to it. When a player offers one last extraordinary tournament, voters notice. They notice the age, the effort and the fact that he stayed at the top for two decades.

We do not say the vote should run on sentiment. Our argument rests on performance. But it would be naive to pretend a jury of human beings ignores the weight of a story like this one.

The Case Against Our Pick (Because We Owe You Honesty)

We would not respect a prediction that skips its own weak points, so here they are.
The final was ugly. Argentina had no shots in 90 minutes. A voter who watched that match might ask where the best player in the world was. The Golden Ball went elsewhere, and that sends a signal.
Club numbers favour others. Kane scored 61 goals in 51 games. Mbappé scored 42 in 44. Yamal produced 42 goal contributions. Whatever Messi did at club level, it is hard to put it next to those figures.
The class and fair play criterion matters. Remember the third item on the voting criteria? After the final, Wayne Rooney told BBC Sport, as reported by YEN.com.gh, that Messi’s confrontation with Marc Cucurella was “sad to see”. FIFA has also opened proceedings against five players and officials over the post-match scenes, but Messi is not among them, and the final’s referee said Messi behaved professionally. But a juror who cares about conduct could mark him down, and in a tight race, a few places on a few ballots can decide everything.
The market disagrees with us. The betting odds right after the final put Yamal and Kane ahead. The National’s own prediction places Kane first, Yamal second and Mbappé third. We respect that view and we know why it exists.
So here is our honest verdict. Our heart says Messi, and so does our reading of the split field. But if the vote swings towards raw output, Kane wins. If it swings towards the team story, Yamal or Rodri wins. Messi’s path is the narrowest of the three, and the most dramatic.

The Rest of the Field

A few other names deserve a mention before the curtain rises.
Ousmane Dembélé won the award last year, and PSG’s dominance gives him a platform to retain it. But the odds published after the World Cup final pushed him out to 25, so he starts well behind the leaders.
Jude Bellingham has an odd story. Heading into the World Cup, few people would have called him a serious contender, because his season at Real Madrid was hit by injuries and ended without trophies. Sports Illustrated notes that few people saw him as a serious contender before the World Cup, yet he still made the shortlist.
Erling Haaland and Michael Olise carry real weight in the Premier League and Bundesliga conversation, and Olise’s presence alongside Kane shows how strong Bayern’s season was.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is a quiet case. Georgia failed to qualify for the World Cup, which means he had no summer stage. Sports Illustrated argues that this should not hurt his case. Voters may disagree.
The defenders deserve a final note. Only three defenders have ever won the Ballon d’Or, and Fabio Cannavaro was the most recent, in 2006. With Cubarsí, Saliba, Hakimi and Marquinhos all on the list, the question of whether a modern defender can break that pattern keeps coming up. Our guess is no, not this year, but the debate is healthy.

The Women’s Ballon d’Or: Barcelona’s Big Night

The women’s award deserves its own spotlight, because the story is almost as interesting.
The National’s predictions list Alexia Putellas, now at London City Lionesses after leaving Barcelona, as the favourite. In what was her final season in Spain, she helped Barcelona win a stunning quadruple, with 26 goals and 15 assists. She also scored twice as Spain beat England 4-0 to seal World Cup qualification. A third Ballon d’Or would put her in rare company.
Behind her, Ewa Pajor scored 33 goals and added seven assists for Barcelona. She also ended a miserable run of five Champions League final defeats with two goals in a 4-0 win over OL Lyonnes. Khadija Shaw of Manchester City sits third in that list, with 21 goals in 22 games as City won the league and FA Cup double.
The women’s field has the opposite problem to the men’s. Barcelona dominate so completely that their own players may split the vote. We expect a close and fascinating finish.

The Other Prizes to Watch

The ceremony hands out far more than two trophies, so keep an eye on these categories.

Kopa Trophy (best young men’s player):

Yamal is the favourite for a second year running, but Pau Cubarsí makes a strong challenge after a rock-solid season and a World Cup in which he played every minute. Warren Zaïre-Emery of PSG rounds out The National’s top three.

Yashin Trophy (best goalkeeper):

David Raya of Arsenal leads the predictions, with Unai Simón and Joan García close behind. All three are Spanish, so that award may become another Spanish celebration.

Men’s coach of the year:

Luis Enrique of PSG is the pick after another Champions League title and five trophies in total. Luis de la Fuente and Vincent Kompany follow.

Women’s coach of the year:

Pere Romeu of Barcelona leads the way after a season in which his team lost just once across all competitions.

Club of the year:

PSG, Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Flamengo and Bodø/Glimt all sit on the men’s shortlist. PSG have a chance to join a very exclusive group by winning three or more European Cups in a row.

How to Watch the Ceremony

The London Palladium event starts at 8pm UK time on Monday, 26 October. For readers in Nigeria, that means 9pm in Lagos, because the UK moves its clocks back an hour on Sunday, 25 October. Note that some outlets still quote times based on the old clock, so check your local listing before you settle in.
You can watch live and free worldwide on DAZN or on the official Ballon d’Or website. Some regions also show it on beIN Sports.
One small tip: the red carpet and early awards often give the best clues. Watch who sits where and who gets called up for the smaller prizes first. The main award always comes last.

Final Call: Who Takes It?

So here we are, a few days from the biggest night in football.
Here is our final scoreboard:

1. Most likely, according to the experts: Harry Kane
2. Biggest potential for history: Lamine Yamal
3. Best case for the team story: Rodri
4. Our pick: Lionel Messi

We expect a tight finish. The gap between first and fourth could come down to a handful of ballots. That is why the 2026 Ballon d’Or feels so thrilling. It is a genuine race, not a coronation.
If Messi wins, football gets a ninth chapter in the most remarkable individual story the sport has ever told. If Kane wins, England gets a tribute to Sir Stanley Matthews that nobody planned. And if Yamal wins, we watch a 19-year-old rewrite the record books.
Whichever way it goes, one thing is certain. Monday night will give us a story worth telling.
Now it’s your turn. Who do you think takes the Ballon d’Or in London: Messi for a ninth, Kane on home soil, or Yamal making history? Drop your pick in the comments, and come back after the ceremony to see who was right.

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