1. Opening: My verdict

This is the last weekend before the final international break of the year, and the schedule has saved plenty of drama for it. In Spain, the top three are separated by only three points, and Real Madrid, Atlético and Barcelona all play. In England, Manchester United host Aston Villa, while Liverpool and Manchester City both need a response after defeats. In Germany, Bayern visit Mainz with a new Harry Kane contract in their pocket, and in Italy a struggling Fiorentina host Juventus. My verdict is that Atlético v Barcelona is the biggest game, but the games with the most at stake for the people involved are in England. All times are Nigerian time (WAT).

2. The evidence

The weekend at a glance

Day	Match	Kick-off (WAT)
Saturday 7 Nov	Mainz v Bayern Munich	3:30pm
Saturday 7 Nov	Nottingham Forest v Manchester City	6:30pm
Saturday 7 Nov	Valencia v Real Madrid	9:00pm
Sunday 8 Nov	Crystal Palace v Liverpool	3:00pm
Sunday 8 Nov	Manchester United v Aston Villa	5:30pm
Sunday 8 Nov	Fiorentina v Juventus	8:45pm
Sunday 8 Nov	Atlético Madrid v Barcelona	9:00pm

Fixtures and times come from the league score feeds.

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SATURDAY

Mainz vs Bayern Munich (3:30pm)

Bayern head to Mainz as Bundesliga leaders, and they’re in a good mood. Harry Kane committed his future to the club this week with a new contract that keeps him in Germany until 2029. He already has six Bundesliga assists this season, more than his total for the whole of last term. If you want the story of how he got here, our Kane Ballon d’Or post has it.

The numbers lean towards the visitors. Bayern are now 30 Bundesliga away games without defeat. Mainz have taken just one point from their four home games, the joint-lowest record in the league. They have also conceded more goals in the first 15 minutes than any other team this season, six.

But don’t write Mainz off. When Bayern last visited, they were 3-0 down before coming back to win 4-3.

On team news, assistant coach Aaron Danks is still in charge in Vincent Kompany’s absence. Jamal Musiala is back in training, but this game comes too soon for him, and Manuel Neuer has trained again, with Danks saying things look good. Danks also said Alphonso Davies may be rested because of his workload. Dortmund play Elversberg at the same time, so Bayern can’t take top spot for granted.

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City (6:30pm)

On paper, this is second against second from bottom. City are second and Forest are second from bottom. But City aren’t coasting. They beat Leipzig on Wednesday, thanks to a Haaland winner, which we covered in our Wednesday review. In the league, though, it’s a different story. They gave up top spot with a 1-0 defeat to Brighton. They haven’t lost three Premier League games in a row since March 2016.

There’s a nice story in this one. Elliot Anderson returns to the City Ground for the first time since moving to City from Forest in the summer. Enzo Maresca expects him to get a warm reception.

Forest’s problem is at home. They are yet to score a home league goal this season, and they’re winless in five league games. Maresca has no fresh injury concerns after the trip to Germany and is expected to go back to his strongest side.

Valencia vs Real Madrid (9:00pm)

This is the first of two La Liga games that could reshape the title race. José Mourinho’s Real Madrid are third, three points behind leaders Barcelona, and a win would put them level.

They arrive in great form. Real Madrid have won seven matches in a row in all competitions, including four straight in La Liga. That run includes a 2-1 win over Barcelona at the end of October.

Valencia, by contrast, are in trouble. They are 19th with nine points from 11 matches. They haven’t won in six attempts at Mestalla this season. They also lost both meetings with Madrid last season, including a 2-0 defeat at Mestalla.

Mourinho isn’t taking it lightly. He has called this one of the toughest matches in the whole Spanish league. He has confirmed that Dean Huijsen, Ibrahima Konaté, Aurélien Tchouaméni and Arda Güler will start. Rodrygo, Raúl Asencio and Ferland Mendy are out, and Vinícius Júnior serves the last game of his domestic suspension.

Source: Al Jazeera preview

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SUNDAY

Crystal Palace vs Liverpool (3:00pm)

Liverpool need an answer. They have lost back-to-back games for the first time all season. First came the 1-0 defeat at home to Arsenal, then the 3-2 defeat at Fenerbahçe, which we covered in our Wednesday review.

Andoni Iraola has been honest about why. He blamed set pieces for the Fenerbahçe loss, with goals conceded from a free-kick, a corner and a long throw. Ryan Gravenberch’s fitness is a day-to-day matter, he said.

Palace are in a worse place. Pierre Sage’s side are in the relegation zone and badly out of form. They have conceded more goals than any other Premier League team, 21. Jean-Philippe Mateta is suspended after a red card against Tottenham. In midweek, a late goal from Daichi Kamada spared them another defeat.

History gives them a sliver of hope. Palace beat Liverpool 2-1 at Selhurst Park last September. But Liverpool had won 10 of their 11 meetings there before that, and Iraola’s side have won four of their six away games this season.

Manchester United vs Aston Villa (5:30pm)

Manchester United gave their fans a night to remember with a 3-2 comeback win over Roma, which we covered in our Tuesday review. Now Michael Carrick needs that spirit to carry over into the league.

The league record is the worry. United have conceded seven goals in four home league games and have yet to keep a clean sheet at Old Trafford. They have scored just once in their last three Premier League home matches. Villa start the weekend five points and seven places above them.

Villa have a story of their own. Unai Emery has never won at Old Trafford, after five trips, and he calls it a huge challenge. Villa are on a five-game unbeaten run in the Premier League. They come off a 3-0 defeat at Barcelona in midweek, which we also covered on Tuesday.

On team news, Sesko, Shaw, Ugarte and Baleba are injured, and Marcus Rashford and Patrick Dorgu are doubts.

Fiorentina vs Juventus (8:45pm)

Two big names, two disappointing seasons. Juventus are seventh with 17 points after beating Napoli 2-0 on 1 November. Taking only 17 points from their first 10 matches has put pressure on Luciano Spalletti. On Thursday they won 2-1 at AZ Alkmaar in the Europa League, with goals from Teun Koopmeiners and Randal Kolo Muani.

Fiorentina’s problems run deeper. They are 16th with eight points, and their 23 goals conceded is the most they have let in after 10 games in 31 Serie A seasons. They haven’t won at home this season. Both of their wins came away, 4-2 at Venezia and 4-2 at Sassuolo on Monday. They are also unbeaten in their last four meetings with Juventus.

The injuries matter too. Seven Juventus players were ruled out of the Alkmaar squad, and Juventus will be without Locatelli and Thuram, the two midfielders Spalletti uses to play through pressure. Even so, Juventus concede fewer chances than any other team in Serie A.

Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona (9:00pm)

And now the one everyone is waiting for. It’s a meeting between the top two in La Liga, with Barcelona on 30 points and Atlético on 28. A home win would put Atlético top of the table.

It’s a classic contrast. Barcelona have scored 46 goals in 11 league games, more than double Atlético’s 22. But Atlético have the division’s meanest defence.

Both teams arrive with a bruise. Barcelona lost 4-2 at PSG on 20 October, then 2-1 to Real Madrid five days later. They have since beaten Alavés 6-1 and Aston Villa 3-0. Atlético, for their part, beat Levante 2-0 in the league last weekend, then lost 2-0 at home to Bayern in the Champions League on Tuesday, which we covered in our Tuesday review.

On team news, Barcelona arrive with a long injury list. Check the line-ups about an hour before kick-off, because those lists change quickly.

Source: Sports Mole preview

3. My analysis

The La Liga scenarios

The title race can change twice this weekend. This table uses only the points above and simple arithmetic, which is my own.

Result	Barcelona	Atlético	Real Madrid
Before the weekend	30	28	27
If Real Madrid win at Valencia	30	28	30
If Barcelona then win at Atlético	33	28	30
If Atlético then win instead	30	31	30

Starting points come from the sources above. The other rows are my own sums, assuming only the results shown.

A Real Madrid win on Saturday would drag them level with Barcelona, and then everything rides on Sunday night.

The home sides are struggling

Here is a pattern I keep noticing. The teams hosting these games have been poor at home.

Home side	Home record from the sources
Mainz	One point from four home games
Valencia	No win in six at Mestalla this season
Nottingham Forest	Yet to score a home league goal
Manchester United	No clean sheet at Old Trafford, seven conceded in four
Fiorentina	No home win in Serie A this season

All figures come from the match sections above.

Five of the seven hosts have a poor home record. That doesn’t mean they’ll lose, but it does give the visitors a real chance.

Three more thoughts stand out to me.

1. The managers are under pressure. Carrick, Iraola, Spalletti and Sage all have something to prove this weekend. A single result won’t settle their stories, but it can change the mood before the break.

2. Both ends of Madrid’s weekend matter. Real Madrid’s seven-game run is the story of Saturday, and Atlético’s defence against Barcelona’s attack is the story of Sunday. I’d watch both live.

3. Check the line-ups. Several teams have long injury lists, and the starting XIs come about an hour before kick-off. Anything I’ve written about who might play is provisional.

4. The counterpoint

I could be reading too much into the home records. Seasons turn on single games, and Forest, Valencia or Fiorentina could break their runs this weekend. Real Madrid’s run doesn’t guarantee a win at a ground where games are often tight, and Barcelona’s injury list may matter more than I think. Team news also changes between Friday and kick-off, and different previews list different absences, so I’ve only used what appeared in more than one place. Everything in my “what to watch” notes is opinion, not a prediction.

5. Verdict and what to watch

My view: this weekend decides who goes into the break with momentum. Real Madrid can close in on the top, Barcelona and Atlético settle their meeting, and four English managers need a response.

My leans (opinion, not guarantees)

Match	My lean
Mainz v Bayern Munich	Bayern
Nottingham Forest v Manchester City	Manchester City
Valencia v Real Madrid	Real Madrid
Crystal Palace v Liverpool	Liverpool
Manchester United v Aston Villa	Too close to call
Fiorentina v Juventus	Juventus, narrowly
Atlético Madrid v Barcelona	Too close, a slight edge to Barcelona

Your turn

• Which game are you most excited about? Tell me in the comments.
• Who wins Atlético v Barcelona? Give me your score.
• Can Carrick’s United beat Villa? Yes or no, and why.
• Which home side breaks its bad run first? Mainz, Valencia, Forest, United or Fiorentina?

I’ll look back at your predictions in my review.

6. Related reading

• Cunha’s Wild Night, PSG’s Record Blitz and Karl’s Madrid Moment: Champions League Matchday 4, Tuesday Review
• Harry Kane Wins the 2026 Ballon d’Or: The Long Road, the Numbers, and the Debate
• Champions league Wednesday Review

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